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I think I know what's coming in Windows 12, and you're not going to like it
Publish Time: 03 Dec, 2025
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We are at a rare moment in Microsoft history, when the company that defined the modern PC is supporting a single version of its flagship operating system. Windows 10 is officially unsupported. Windows 11 is rushing towards its fifth anniversary -- which is traditionally the end of mainstream support.

Also: How to upgrade your 'incompatible' Windows 10 PC to Windows 11 for free - today

That all suggests that the next version of Windows -- let's call it Windows 12 -- will be here before you know it, ready or not. So, what can we expect? I've got some ideas, but let me warn you: You're probably not going to like my predictions.

Everything old is new again

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: If you want to know what's coming next from Microsoft, just look at its past failures.

Also: Microsoft at 50: Its incredible rise, 15 lost years, and stunning comeback - in 4 charts

Look at the first release of Edge, which was built on a heavily modified version of the Internet Explorer engine. It failed miserably, so Microsoft killed it and replaced it with a browser built on the open-source Chromium codebase, while keeping the name. It's now a core part of Windows 11 and is tolerated by web designers and end users in a way that its predecessors never could manage.

Or how about Cortana? That was Microsoft's attempt to build a digital assistant to compete with Apple's Siri. It launched with great fanfare in 2014 and belly-flopped. It was unceremoniously deprecated in 2020. But Microsoft didn't give up on the idea of a smart assistant, which now exists in a much more prominent capacity as Copilot. You may have heard of it.

Microsoft's biggest failure of all -- one for the record books -- was the Surface RT, a tablet that was powered by an Arm processor. It ran Windows RT, which supported an extremely limited selection of apps from the Windows Store. People hated the hardware and the software!

Also: Why people keep flocking to Linux in 2025 (and it's not just to escape Windows)

I regret to inform you that I am placing my bets on Microsoft reviving some of the key ideas from that all-time failure.

The company has already tried twice, without success. First was the introduction of the much-loathed Windows 10 S in 2017. It was designed as a locked-down OS that could only run apps from the Windows Store and couldn't install third-party apps or drivers delivered using standard Windows installers. It got a name change to Windows 10 in S Mode and is all but deprecated on Windows 11.

And then there's the ill-fated Windows 10X, which was announced in October 2019, just months before the onset of the global pandemic. According to my erstwhile colleague Mary Jo Foley, Windows 10X was designed "to provide some of the same benefits as Windows 10 in S Mode ... such as reducing 'Win Rot,' better 'Instant On,' a reduced attack surface, and provision of more seamless updates." Most intriguingly, it was going to run legacy Win32 apps in containers.

Also: The Windows Insider Program is a confusing mess

Microsoft put Windows 10X on a back burner in 2021 so it could concentrate on Windows 11. But I just have to believe that developers are still working feverishly to reintroduce those concepts in the next version of Windows.

None of what I've written here is based on inside information. This is speculation on my part, but given my focus on Microsoft's track record over more than three decades, I'm confident most of this should be a pretty safe bet.

You'll need AI-optimized hardware

AI is not going away. Microsoft is embedding its Copilot features in every nook, crevice, cranny, and Settings page in Windows 11. It's also expecting people to pay for the privilege -- those data centers are expensive to build, and they rack up pretty serious electric bills every month.

I expect that the next version of Windows will require a PC that meets Microsoft's Copilot+ standard, which requires a dedicated neural processing unit (NPU), with higher memory and storage standards as well.

Also: How to upgrade from Windows 11 Home to Pro - without overpaying

If those specs are enforced, the result will be similar to what happened with Windows 11's hardware requirements, with a large number of older machines incapable of upgrading beyond Windows 11.

Arm-based systems will be preferred for home users, I predict, with businesses continuing to stick with Intel and AMD (although that might change).

Your old apps might not work

There are many good reasons to design an operating system that will only run apps from a trusted repository (including its own store). Apple seems to have done a good job with that model on iPhone and iPad, and you know Microsoft would love to do the same with Windows. That would block the most common sources of malware and reliability issues. Unfortunately, it might also block the one app you absolutely need to run.

Also: Here's why Windows PCs are only going to get more annoying

The good news is that the Microsoft Store and the Winget repository now include an enormous number of apps. I've been using a wonderful app called UniGetUI (available in the Microsoft Store!), which wraps an easy-to-use command-line interface around Winget and the store. After using that app for several months, I've found only a scattered few programs that require an old-fashioned installer. That's a huge difference from the old Windows Store days.

My prediction? The Home version of Windows 12 will only allow you to use apps you get from a trusted source. You'll need to upgrade to a Pro or Enterprise edition if you want to install Win32 apps downloaded from an external source, and those apps will run in sandboxed containers (or even in Microsoft's cloud-based Windows 365 PCs), so they can't do any damage.

Don't get me wrong: Those moves will be good for the Windows ecosystem. But enthusiasts and traditionalists might not be happy about what they perceive as a loss of freedom. And we know from experience how quickly a Microsoft product can get a bad reputation based on misconceptions and misunderstandings.

You'll need a paid subscription for advanced features

At the dawn of the Windows 10 era, I wrote "Windows 10 subscriptions aren't happening. Here's why". That prediction has stood up for nearly 10 years, but I think Microsoft has finally laid the groundwork to start charging a monthly subscription fee for Windows.

Also: Hate Windows 11? Here's how you can make it work more like Windows 10

That doesn't mean that the traditional Windows business model is going away. I believe the overwhelming majority of PC users will still buy Windows preinstalled on a new PC, with the cost included in the price of the hardware. Instead of calling that built-in OS Windows Home Edition, let's call it Windows Core. (Microsoft has been working on various iterations of this idea for years -- Windows OneCore, Windows CoreOS, and Windows Lite, for example.) If you're happy with that baseline feature set, you can keep using it. Like a timeshare salesman, Microsoft will annoy you with cross-sells, upsells, and shameless promotions for services like OneDrive, Microsoft 365, and Xbox Live. Just keep saying no.

But I will not be surprised to see the Pro edition go away, to be replaced by a subscription-based package that gives you all the Pro features for a monthly fee instead of a one-time license charge. If I were a Microsoft product manager, I would call it Microsoft 365 Pro, and I would throw in a slew of credits for Copilot tokens to justify putting a monthly price tag of $10 or even $20 on the package.

It's a time-tested model: Enterprise admins have been paying for Microsoft 365 E3 and E5 licenses that are designed exactly this way. It's time for that model to move down to the Pro editions.

It will be here before you're ready.

If Windows 12 follows the same timeline as Windows 11, here's how it will play out:

  • Development of Windows 11 will slow in 2026 as development of Windows 12 accelerates behind the scenes.
  • The final (minor) feature update for Windows 11 will arrive in 2027.
  • Look for a preview release of Windows 12 in July 2027.
  • Release date? My money is on October 2027.

What will it be called?

The obvious choice is Windows 12, but Microsoft has a history of upending the board with "game changer" releases, and everything the company has done in the Satya Nadella era suggests that it expect this one to be a game-changer. Think Windows 95, Windows XP, and Windows Vista.

Also: Microsoft has lost its way

Given Microsoft's current branding obsession with its AI features, it's an easy jump: Windows Copilot Edition, anyone?

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